Record-Breaking Monthly Close: 5 Key Bitcoin Updates

Bitcoin (BTC) began the second quarter of 2024 with a series of new records, but the question remains whether the bull market can continue. The first quarter of the year ended with the highest weekly, monthly, and quarterly close ever seen for BTC. The resistance from the previous all-time highs in 2021 is keeping price discovery elusive. To break through this resistance, Bitcoin would need to reach $74,000 and clear out the sell-side liquidity. As the second quarter gets underway, there is the potential for volatile moves in BTC price action.

One factor that could impact Bitcoin’s price in the coming days is the release of nonfarm payrolls data from the United States, accompanied by commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Last week, BTC appeared to respond positively to Powell’s remarks, which indicated the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. Seasoned hodlers are starting to take profit, which goes against the influx of institutional capital from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has remained within a familiar range, with $69,000 acting as a focal point. Traders and analysts are cautious and waiting for clearer trend signals before entering positions. There is optimism that Bitcoin could challenge the top of its range and use it as support before continuing its upside movement. It remains to be seen how Bitcoin will react to future price movements.

In the upcoming U.S. macroeconomic week, the market will be watching Powell’s remarks on April 3 and the release of nonfarm payrolls data on April 5. The employment data will be closely watched as it could influence the timing of interest rate cuts. Weak jobs numbers could increase the likelihood of an earlier rate cut and strengthen risk assets. The market is optimistic about long-term economic policy, with interest rate cuts expected as 2024 progresses.

As Bitcoin sets new records, long-term holders are taking profit and moving their coins on-chain. On-chain data shows a peak in realized profits, with long-term holders accounting for a significant portion of the profit-taking. This suggests that long-term holders are becoming an increasingly important cohort in assessing sell-side supply pressure. There is a “remarkable similarity” between the current BTC price action and the previous bull market in 2021, challenging the idea that institutional interest is driving a new price paradigm this year.

Market sentiment in the crypto market is currently characterized by “extreme greed,” as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Despite the lack of a significant price increase, traders are anticipating a shot at price discovery across markets. There is a belief that the strong performance of other sectors, such as gold and stocks, could create a bullish divergence for Bitcoin and altcoins. This suggests that traders may become increasingly irrational if the bull market delivers sudden upside movements.

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